🌍 Changing Regional Apparatus and Afghanistan

🌍 Changing Regional Apparatus and Afghanistan

Afghanistan’s geographical location, adjacent to Central Asia, West Asia, South Asia, and Eurasia, makes it strategically very significant. It remained a war zone for the US and the former Soviet Union (USSR) during the Cold War. The invasions of Afghanistan destabilized its socio-political system, whether by the USSR or the US. Despite having military supremacy over Afghan insurgents, foreign forces failed to defeat them and establish the writ of the US-backed Afghan government.

The transformation in geopolitics has triggered a new power struggle among great powers in Afghanistan at a time of intense internal strife. This struggle is fueled by several contending issues among stakeholders, while foreign interventions have further worsened the domestic situation. Therefore, ending the current civil war requires neighbors and great powers to adopt an inclusive conflict-management approach based on dialogue and political settlement.

🇺🇸 USA and Afghanistan

The US-led “war on terror” changed Afghanistan’s strategic environment. It ended the Taliban regime, dismantled al-Qaeda safe havens, and installed a democratic government in Kabul. The US also has economic and strategic interests, including control over Afghanistan’s natural resources and access to Central Asia via the Northern Distribution Network (NDN) and the New Silk Road Strategy.

The Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) signed on September 30, 2014, allowed American forces to retain military bases in Afghanistan. Despite spending heavily and suffering military losses, a US victory in Afghanistan is not expected soon. Trump’s ambiguous Afghanistan policy added instability, though ongoing US-Taliban dialogue indicates a possible shift.

🇨🇳 China and Afghanistan

The growing US military presence in Afghanistan challenges China strategically, as it could encircle China and affect its interests. Afghanistan is important for China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). China is increasing its influence by investing in the country, providing material assistance, training human resources, combating terrorism, and signing the Treaty of Good Neighbourliness and Cooperation.

The US’s strategy of military presence and encouraging India in Afghanistan alarms both China and Russia. Both countries view this as an attempt to maintain US influence in regional politics and to check China’s rise in Asia. Stability in Afghanistan is crucial for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which provides China with the shortest link to West Asia.

🇷🇺 Russia and Afghanistan

Russia believes the US will not withdraw from Afghanistan because it provides a strategic advantage. Russia resists changes to the geostrategic balance in Central Asia caused by US presence and Chinese influence. Russia has promoted multilateral talks, such as the 2017 Moscow convention for Afghan peace, inviting Afghanistan, Pakistan, US, India, China, Iran, and Central Asian countries (the US did not participate).

Russia and China share similar views on Afghanistan’s peace process and have strengthened relations with Pakistan, including through the Dushanbe Quartet (Russia, Afghanistan, Tajikistan, Pakistan). Despite ideological differences with the West, Russia aims to increase influence in Afghanistan to achieve its strategic interests.

🇮🇷 Iran and Afghanistan

Iran seeks stability in its neighborhood, especially due to its troubled relations with the Taliban. US-Iran tensions affect development near the Afghan-Iran border. Iran expanded its influence during the Karzai regime and continues under the current Kabul government. Tehran maintains relations with India, Russia, and the Taliban, providing development assistance and cultural influence to pursue its interests.

🇮🇳 India and Afghanistan

India uses a “soft power approach” in Afghanistan, participating in development projects, humanitarian assistance, and small-scale industrial support. India helped Afghanistan join SAARC and strengthened cultural ties.

India’s interests are threefold: preventing terrorism spillover, accessing Central Asia through Afghanistan, and countering Pakistani influence. India, Iran, and Afghanistan are developing a transit route via Chabahar port in Iran, linking India to Afghanistan and Central Asia. The port facilitates trade and improves connectivity for Afghanistan, a landlocked country.

🇵🇰 Pakistan and Afghanistan

Relations between Islamabad and Kabul are strained due to mistrust over the Durand Line, porous borders, and security issues. Pakistan proposed border fencing, but Afghanistan rejected it. India’s growing role in Afghanistan concerns Pakistan, as Afghan territory is allegedly used to support terrorism in Pakistan, including in Balochistan and FATA.

Pakistan conducts counterterrorism operations in FATA, while differences exist with Washington on strategies. Pakistan is also concerned about a resurgent Taliban supporting Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).

🤝 Pak-Russia Thaw

Pakistan and Russia are experiencing warming relations since 9/11. Key milestones include Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov’s visit to Pakistan in 2007, support for Pakistan joining the SCO in 2011, and increased defense cooperation. Russia lifted its arms embargo and supplied Mi-35 Hind helicopters, while Pakistan expressed interest in additional Russian military hardware.

Joint military exercises have been conducted despite Indian objections. Russia’s concerns over US presence in Afghanistan, regional instability, and China’s facilitation of Pakistan-Russia ties have encouraged closer relations. Economic integration initiatives, such as the North-South gas pipeline, CASA-1000, and TAPI projects, further strengthen cooperation. Russia also recognizes Pakistan’s increasing importance as India aligns more closely with the US and other Western partners.

🔥 Factors Behind Increasing Warmth in Russia-Pakistan Relations

🌐 Changing Regional Dynamics

Since the 9/11 US invasion of Afghanistan, Moscow has faced a dilemma. While it welcomed the removal of the Taliban regime in Kabul, it has been uneasy about the long-term presence of US forces in Afghanistan. Russia views Afghanistan’s geographical location as highly suitable for setting up military bases capable of exerting pressure across Central Asia, the Caspian littoral states, and the Persian Gulf, which are rich in oil, gas, and other resources. Moscow is concerned that the US presence could undermine Russia’s position in the region and beyond, increasing instability and uncertainty, especially regarding spill-over effects into Central Asian states.

🤝 Path to Normalization with Pakistan

During the Cold War, Pakistan’s relationship with Russia was constrained due to its close ties with China, while Moscow tilted towards India. In the post-Cold War era, the normalization of Sino-Russian relations facilitated rapprochement between Islamabad and Moscow. Russian and Chinese leadership coordinated their policies in South Asia, as seen in the induction of both India and Pakistan into the SCO. Russia and China have also coordinated on Afghan issues through joint statements in the SCO forum.

More recently, Russia, China, and Pakistan have held trilateral consultations on the deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan. The China factor has helped strengthen ties between Russia and Pakistan.

🛣️ Regional Economic and Strategic Projects

Several regional developments, such as the Gwadar-centered China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), have reshaped Russia’s outlook towards the region. In 2015, Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to pursue joint projects between the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union and China’s New Silk Road Economic Belt, of which CPEC is a key part.

Moscow signed a deal with Pakistan to invest US$2 billion in the North-South gas pipeline connecting Karachi and Lahore. Russia has also shown interest in regional economic integration. State-run Gazprom is ready to participate in constructing the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline. The Russia-Pakistan-Afghanistan-Tajikistan Quadrilateral Forum highlighted regional projects like a land corridor connecting Pakistan and Tajikistan through Afghanistan’s Wakhan strip, and electricity transmission from Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to South Asia under CASA-1000, with Putin pledging US$500 million for investment.

🇮🇳 India Factor and Russia’s Regional Strategy

Russia has traditionally kept its relationship with Pakistan secondary to its ties with India. However, recent shifts have made Moscow realize Pakistan’s unique importance. In the post-Cold War era, New Delhi has gradually drifted towards the US, particularly after 9/11, strengthening its strategic partnership. India has also developed closer economic relationships with EU countries, Japan, and China, while maintaining a divergence with Beijing over Pakistan.

As a result, Russia remains India’s only strategic partner, though arms sales to India have declined. New Delhi signed multi-billion dollar deals for Rafale jets with France, overlooking the Russian SU-35. From 2011 to 2014, India imported US$13.9 billion in military equipment from the US and only US$5 billion from Russia. By 2015, India became the second-largest buyer of US weapons, after Saudi Arabia.

These developments have encouraged Russia to diversify its ties in the region, increasing contacts with Pakistan and showing interest in the Pakistani defense market